Locking down the whole Country for a second time is one of the gravest decisions that the Government can impose. With Labour and the Liberal Democrats voting for the lockdown the Bill will be passed by Parliament but I have been incredulous about some of the statistics presented in its support and I would have preferred that regional measures be given longer to work with greater sanctions for non-compliance if necessary.
All of us will be affected by this decision and I have been busy since the weekend making representations to Ministers on behalf of small business owners, publicans, participants in outdoor sports such as golf, tennis and riding as well as the many church goers. If we are to ‘follow the science’ it is incumbent on the scientists to positively explain where the transmission risk of these and many other activities lie.
As a member of the powerful Commons Science and Technology Select Committee I had the opportunity to cross-examine the CMO Chris Whitty and Chief Scientific Advisor, Sir Patrick Vallance about the data presented to the Government. In particular, my questioning focussed on the scenarios presented in the slides shared with the nation in Sunday’s press conference. There was one obvious outlier on the graph; a blue line showing almost double the deaths than any other institution’s forecast. This blue line - representing the projection by Public Health England – predicted more than 4,000 Covid deaths a day at peak – a number which has not been seen in any other country in the world, including those who have been much more badly impacted than the UK or with much larger populations. Had this forecast been remotely accurate this week would have seen over 1,000 deaths per day – whereas the number is currently running at around 130 a day. I obtained a commitment to publish the workings behind this so that the whole country may benefit from seeing the basis of Government advice and lockdown policy and be able to judge for themselves.
Although my weekly constituency surgeries will continue as usual in a Covid secure way during lockdown, one of my last public visits pre-lockdown was to the open day of the beautifully maintained Empire Hall in the West Sussex village of Graffham. It has recently benefitted from upgrading its facilities and outdoor space and is a great venue. In common with so many village halls it is the heart of the local community hosting events for all age groups in a sustainable way.
Pic (left to right) Andrew Griffith MP with Liz Nicholson & Jim Kirke of the organising committee, Graffham Empire Hall. Credit: Colin Barker.
